Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment Daniel Kahneman Olivier Sibony Cass R Sunstein

Part I: Finding Noise

1. Crime and Noisy Punishment

2. A Noisy System

3. Singular Decisions

Part II: Your Mind Is a Measuring Instrument

4. Matters of Judgment

5. Measuring Error

6. The Analysis of Noise

7. Occasion Noise

8. How Groups Amplify Noise

Part III: Noise in Predictive Judgments

9. Judgments and Models

10. Noiseless Rules

11. Objective Ignorance

12. The Valley of the Normal

Part IV: How Noise Happens

13. Heuristics, Biases, and Noise

14. The Matching Operation

15. Scales

16. Patterns

17. The Sources of Noise

Part V: Improving Judgments

18. Better Judges for Better Judgments

19. Debiasing and Decision Hygiene

20. Sequencing Information in Forensic Science

21. Selection and Aggregation in Forecasting

22. Guidelines in Medicine

23. Defining the Scale in Performance Ratings

24. Structure in Hiring

25. The Mediating Assessments Protocol

Part VI: Optimal Noise

26. The Costs of Noise Reduction

27. Dignity

28. Rules or Standards?