Global Dynamics Approaches from Complexity Science 1st Edition by Alan Wilson 111892228X 9781118922286

Part One: Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science

Chapter 1: Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science

Reference

Part Two: Trade and Economic Development

Chapter 2: The Global Trade System and Its Evolution

2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports’ System

2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network

2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective

2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective

References

Appendix

A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics

Chapter 3: An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade

3.1 Introduction

3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration

3.3 Model Layers

3.4 The Workings of the Model

3.5 Model Calibration

3.6 Result 1: Steady State

3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM

3.8 Discussion and Conclusions

References

Chapter 4: A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input–Output Models

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Existing Global Economic Models

4.3 Description of the Model

4.4 Solving the Model

4.5 Analysis

4.6 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Appendix

A.1 Modelling the ‘Rest of the World’

A.2 Services Trade Data

Part Three: Migration

Chapter 5: Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Policy and Migration Research

5.3 Conclusion

References

Appendix

A.1 United Kingdom

A.2 Rest of Europe

A.3 Rest of the World

Chapter 6: Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe

6.1 Introduction

6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge

6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology

6.4 Model Parameter Calibration

6.5 Model Experiments

6.6 Results

6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe

References

Chapter 7: Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows – An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Methodology

7.3 Results and Validation

7.4 Discussion

7.5 Conclusions

References

Part Four: Security

Chapter 8: Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space–Time Patterning of Events

8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models

8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots

8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat

8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict

References

Chapter 9: Riots

9.1 Introduction

9.2 The 2011 Riots in London

9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion

9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice

9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots

9.6 Discussion

References

Chapter 10: Rebellions

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Data

10.3 Hawkes model

10.4 Results

10.5 Discussion

References

Chapter 11: Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy

11.1 The Model

11.2 The Test Case

11.3 Uses of the Model

Reference

Appendix

A.1 Volume Field of Type Ship

A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units

A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships

Chapter 12: Space–Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq

12.3 Counterinsurgency Data

12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space–Time Distributions

12.5 Concluding Comments

References

Chapter 13: International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict

13.1 Introduction

13.2 Global Information Flows

13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict

13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression

13.5 Conclusion

References

Appendix

Part Five: Aid and Development

Chapter 14: International Development Aid: A Complex System

14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems’ Perspective

14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions

14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System

14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research

14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid

14.6 Relationships and Interactions

14.7 Conclusions

References

Chapter 15: Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid

15.1 Introduction

15.2 Data Collection

15.3 Model Building

15.4 Discussion and Future Work

References

Chapter 16: Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective

16.1 Aid Allocation Networks

16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model

16.3 Application of the Model

16.4 Remarks

Acknowledgements

References

Appendix

A.1 Common Functional Definitions

Part Six: Global Dynamics: An Integrated Model and Policy Challenges

Chapter 17: An Integrated Model

17.1 Introduction

17.2 Adding Migration

17.3 Adding Aid

17.4 Adding Security

17.5 Concluding Comments