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To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.
Table of contents:
Positive Economic Growth Spillovers of G8 Countries into South Africa
Growth Spillovers from BRIC Countries into South Africa
Spillovers of Foreign Financial Shocks
The Spillovers of Financial Shocks from the United States into the South African Economy
Spillovers from Euro Area Bond Yields into the South African Macro Economy
Capital Flow Effects and the Trade Balance
Capital Inflows and Asset Prices in South Africa
The Effects of Portfolio Inflow and Outflow on the Economy
Investment Flows and Exchange Rate Effects on the Trade Balance
Equity Markets Interdependence and Financial Stress
Interdependence in Emerging Economies: The Case of Equity Markets
Financial Stress, Volatility and Economic Activity in South Africa
Conclusion
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