The Technological Singularity Managing the Journey 1st Edition by Victor Callaghan ISBN 3662540339 9783662540336

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ISBN 10:  3662540339
ISBN 13: 978-3662540336
Author:      Victor Callaghan

The Technological Singularity Managing the Journey 1st  Table of contents:

1. Introduction to the Technological Singularity
1.1 Why the “Singularity” Is Important
1.2 Superintelligence, Superpowers
1.3 Danger, Danger!
1.4 Uncertainties and Safety
References

2. Risks of the Journey to the Singularity
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Catastrophic AGI Risk
    2.2.1 Most Tasks Will Be Automated
    2.2.2 AGIs Might Harm Humans
    2.2.3 AGIs May Become Powerful Quickly
        2.2.3.1 Hardware Overhang
        2.2.3.2 Speed Explosion
        2.2.3.3 Intelligence Explosion
References

3. Responses to the Journey to the Singularity
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Post-Superintelligence Responses
3.3 Societal Proposals
    3.3.1 Do Nothing
        3.3.1.1 AI Is Too Distant to Be Worth Our Attention
        3.3.1.2 Little Risk, no Action Needed
        3.3.1.3 Let Them Kill Us
        3.3.1.4 “Do Nothing” Proposals—Our View
    3.3.2 Integrate with Society
        3.3.2.1 Legal and Economic Controls
        3.3.2.2 Foster Positive Values
        3.3.2.3 “Integrate with Society” Proposals—Our View
    3.3.3 Regulate Research
        3.3.3.1 Review Boards
        3.3.3.2 Encourage Research into Safe AGI
        3.3.3.3 Differential Technological Progress
        3.3.3.4 International Mass Surveillance
        3.3.3.5 “Regulate Research” Proposals—Our View
    3.3.4 Enhance Human Capabilities
        3.3.4.1 Would We Remain Human?
        3.3.4.2 Would Evolutionary Pressures Change Us?
        3.3.4.3 Would Uploading Help?
        3.3.4.4 “Enhance Human Capabilities” Proposals—Our View
    3.3.5 Relinquish Technology
        3.3.5.1 Outlaw AGI
        3.3.5.2 Restrict Hardware
        3.3.5.3 “Relinquish Technology” Proposals—Our View
3.4 External AGI Constraints
    3.4.1 AGI Confinement
        3.4.1.1 Safe Questions
        3.4.1.2 Virtual Worlds
        3.4.1.3 Resetting the AGI
        3.4.1.4 Checks and Balances
        3.4.1.5 “AI Confinement” Proposals—Our View
    3.4.2 AGI Enforcement
        3.4.2.1 “AGI Enforcement” Proposals—Our View
3.5 Internal Constraints
    3.5.1 Oracle AI
        3.5.1.1 Oracles Are Likely to Be Released
        3.5.1.2 Oracles Will Become Authorities
        3.5.1.3 “Oracle AI” Proposals—Our View
    3.5.2 Top-Down Safe AGI
        3.5.2.1 Three Laws
        3.5.2.2 Categorical Imperative
        3.5.2.3 Principle of Voluntary Joyous Growth
        3.5.2.4 Utilitarianism
        3.5.2.5 Value Learning
        3.5.2.6 Approval-Directed Agents
        3.5.2.7 “Top-Down Safe AGI” Proposals—Our View
    3.5.3 Bottom-up and Hybrid Safe AGI
        3.5.3.1 Evolutionary Invariants
        3.5.3.2 Evolved Morality
        3.5.3.3 Reinforcement Learning
        3.5.3.4 Human-like AGI
        3.5.3.5 “Bottom-up and Hybrid Safe AGI” Proposals—Our View
    3.5.4 AGI Nanny
        3.5.4.1 “AGI Nanny” Proposals—Our View
    3.5.5 Motivational Scaffolding
    3.5.6 Formal Verification
        3.5.6.1 “Formal Verification” Proposals—Our View
    3.5.7 Motivational Weaknesses
        3.5.7.1 High Discount Rates
        3.5.7.2 Easily Satiable Goals
        3.5.7.3 Calculated Indifference
        3.5.7.4 Programmed Restrictions
        3.5.7.5 Legal Machine Language
        3.5.7.6 “Motivational Weaknesses” Proposals—Our View
3.6 Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References

4. How Change Agencies Can Affect Our Path Towards a Singularity
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Pre-singularity: The Dynamic Process of Technological Change
    4.2.1 Paradigm Shifts
    4.2.2 Technological Change and Innovation Adoption
    4.2.3 The Change Agency Perspective
        4.2.3.1 Business Organizations as Agents of Change in Innovation Practice
        4.2.3.2 Social Networks as Agents of Change
        4.2.3.3 The Influence of Entrepreneurs as Agents of Change
        4.2.3.4 Nation States as Agents of Change
4.3 Key Drivers of Technology Research and Their Impact
4.4 The Anti-singularity Postulate
4.5 Conclusions
References

5. Agent Foundations for Aligning Machine Intelligence with Human Interests: A Technical Research Agenda
5.1 Introduction
    5.1.1 Why These Problems?
5.2 Highly Reliable Agent Designs
    5.2.1 Realistic World-Models
    5.2.2 Decision Theory
    5.2.3 Logical Uncertainty
    5.2.4 Vingean Reflection
5.3 Error-Tolerant Agent Designs
5.4 Value Specification
5.5 Discussion
    5.5.1 Toward a Formal Understanding of the Problem
    5.5.2 Why Start Now?
References

6. Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Key ASI R&D Risk and Decision Issues
6.3 Risk Analysis Methods
    6.3.1 Fault Trees
    6.3.2 Event Trees
    6.3.3 Estimating Parameters for Fault Trees and Event Trees
    6.3.4 Elicitation of Expert Judgment
    6.3.5 Aggregation of Data Sources
6.4 Risk Management Decision Analysis Methods
6.5 Evaluating Opportunities for Future Research
6.6 Concluding Thoughts
Acknowledgments
References

7. Diminishing Returns and Recursive Self-Improving Artificial Intelligence
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Self-improvement
    7.2.1 Evolutionary Algorithms
    7.2.2 Learning Algorithms
7.3 Limits of Recursively Improving Intelligent Algorithms
    7.3.1 Software Improvements
    7.3.2 Hardware Improvements
7.4 The Takeaway
References

8. Energy, Complexity, and the Singularity
8.1 A Contradiction
8.2 Challenges
    8.2.1 Climate Change
    8.2.2 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
    8.2.3 Energy—or, Where’s My Jetsons Car?
    8.2.4 The Troubles with Science
8.3 Energy and Complexity
8.4 Exponentials and Feedbacks
8.5 Ingenuity, not Data Processing
8.6 In Summary
Acknowledgments
References

9. Computer Simulations as a Technological Singularity in the Empirical Sciences
9.1 Introduction
9.2 The Anthropocentric Predicament
9.3 The Reliability of Computer Simulations
    9.3.1 Verification and Validation Methods
9.4 Final Words
References

10. Can the Singularity Be Patented? (And Other IP Conundrums for Converging Technologies)
10.1 Introduction
10.2 A Singular Promise
10.3 Intellectual Property
    10.3.1 Some General IP Problems in Converging Technologies
    10.3.2 Some Gaps in IP Relating to the Singularity
10.4 Limits to Ownership and Other Monopolies
10.5 Owning the Singularity
10.6 Ethics, Patents, and Artificial Agents
10.7 The Open Alternative
References

11. The Emotional Nature of Post-Cognitive Singularities
11.1 Technological Singularity: Key Concepts
    11.1.1 Tools and Methods
    11.1.2 Singularity: Main Hypotheses
    11.1.3 Implications of Post-singularity Entities with Advanced, Meta-cognitive Intelligence Ruled by Emotion
11.2 Post-cognitive Singularity Entities and their Physical Nature
    11.2.1 Being a Singularity Entity
    11.2.1.1 Super-intelligent Entities
    11.2.1.2 Transhumans
    11.2.2 Post Singularity Entities as Living Systems?
11.3 Para-emotional Systems
11.4 Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References

12. A Psychoanalytic Approach to the Singularity: Why We Cannot Do Without Auxiliary Constructions
12.1 Introduction
12.2 AI and Intelligence
12.3 Consciousness
12.4 Reason and Emotion
12.5 Psychoanalysis
12.6 Conclusion
References

13. Reflections on the Singularity Journey
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Eliezer Yudkowsky
    13.2.1 The Event Horizon
    13.2.2 Accelerating Change
    13.2.3 The Intelligence Explosion
    13.2.4 MIRI and LessWrong
13.3 Scott Aaronson
13.4 Stuart Armstrong
13.5 Too Far in the Future
13.6 Scott Siskind
    13.6.1 Wireheading
    13.6.2 Work on AI Safety Now

14. Singularity Blog Insights
14.1 Three Major Singularity Schools
14.2 AI Timeline Predictions: Are We Getting Better?
14.3 No Time Like the Present for AI Safety Work
14.4 The Singularity Is Far

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